POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – A new study indicates that climate change has the potential to nearly triple the amount of land affected by wildfires across Europe annually by the year 2100. The research projects a 192% rise in yearly burned areas under a high-emissions pathway associated with approximately 3.6°C of global warming. The findings follow recent major wildfires in 2026 that impacted regions of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The analysis highlights hot, dry, and windy conditions as the primary climate factors driving these increases.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study utilized two fire models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers examined a low-emissions scenario, SSP1-2.6, alongside a high-emissions scenario, SSP3-7.0. The lower pathway corresponds to an approximate warming of 1.8°C, whereas the higher reaches about 3.6°C. To better understand the impact of socioeconomic factors, they conducted separate experiments where these variables remained constant to isolate their influence on wildfire trends.
Under the low-emissions scenario, one model estimated an increase of roughly 39% in annual burned land by the end of the century. Conversely, another model suggested a possible decline under this lower warming due to differing representations of human influence. When considering the high-emissions pathway, both models indicated a much more pronounced growth in burned areas, especially around the Mediterranean and much of Western and Central Europe, regions that have historically experienced relatively limited fire activity.
Models confirm emissions as key driver of burned areas
The research emphasizes that future wildfire activity in Europe will be strongly influenced by fire weather conditions and firefighting capabilities. Factors such as population density, vegetation dynamics, and land use also play roles, especially at regional scales. Maik Billing, the lead author from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained that the study distinguishes between climate-induced fire weather and human-related factors affecting fire spread.
Advancements in wildfire prevention, early detection, and suppression efforts could potentially reduce the burned area by 72% to 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. The potential reduction is greater under the low-emissions pathway and less so under scenarios of stronger warming. Despite ongoing enhancements in fire management, about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions could still see increased fire activity under significant climate change. Co-author Thomas Hickler, affiliated with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, contributed to these findings.
Effective fire management can help curb wildfire spread
The study’s insights arrive amid an intense wildfire season in 2026, characterized by persistent dry conditions and extreme heat, which have fueled large-scale fires across Europe. While southern regions experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, fires also affected areas further north. The projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. The authors note that these patterns reflect changes in fire weather driven by rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells.
It is important to emphasize that the projected 192% increase is not an unavoidable forecast but rather a modeled scenario based on the high-emissions pathway and certain assumptions. The researchers identified that implementing stronger fire management strategies could significantly reduce this rise, with potential decreases of up to 92%. Nonetheless, such measures alone cannot fully offset the increase in fire activity anticipated under more severe warming conditions. The study underscores that emissions levels, fire weather, and firefighting capacity are critical factors shaping the future extent of wildfires in Europe.