ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects that global cereal output in 2026 will reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the record set last year. Despite this decline, the FAO notes that the harvest will still be the second-largest on record. The latest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes below its July forecast, with an annual drop of 61.1 million tonnes, marking the steepest year-on-year decrease since 2018.
After experiencing weaker crop prospects, global maize production is now expected to be 1.309 billion tonnes, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates. Heat and dryness during the summer months adversely affected yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Additionally, official estimates prompted smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil delivered better-than-anticipated yields, contributing to above-average maize outputs in both countries for 2026.
Forecasts for world wheat production have increased by 4.2 million tonnes, now totaling 810.7 million tonnes. The upward revision was driven by improved yield expectations for Canada and Morocco, each raising projections by about 1.5 million tonnes. Expectations also grew for Russia and Ukraine, although dry weather conditions have lowered forecasts for the European Union and United Kingdom. Despite these adjustments, global wheat production is still expected to be 3.8% below 2025 figures, maintaining its position as the second-largest crop on record.
Declines in Maize Production Contribute to Global Cereal Outlook Adjustment
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, indicating a 1.9% decrease from the revised record in 2025/26. Recent data for Myanmar and strong yields from main crops in Sri Lanka support this latest estimate. These positive factors offset reductions seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings hit multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal utilization to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, while wheat use is projected to decline from last season’s elevated levels. Worldwide rice consumption is forecast at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Coarse grain use, including barley in China and maize in the United States, continues to play a significant role in overall grain demand, particularly for feed purposes.
Global Cereal Reserves Remain Relatively Comfortable Despite Slight Decline
At the end of the 2027 seasons, world cereal stocks are projected to total 947.2 million tonnes. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes lower than earlier estimates but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio for cereals worldwide is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% from the previous season. Increases are expected in wheat reserves in Russia and Ukraine, while stocks of maize and barley are forecasted to be lower, influencing the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, up by 1.7 million tonnes from the previous estimate. Despite the increase, it remains below the record levels seen in 2025/26. A significant portion of this growth is attributed to stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. The international rice trade for 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, with total rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 peak.