GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, marking a significant rise from the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The organization credited stronger trade activity in the first half, adjustments in supply chains, and increased investments in artificial intelligence as reasons for the upward revision. Despite major disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent during the first six months of 2026. Looking ahead, the WTO now anticipates merchandise trade growth of 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a key role in merchandise trade growth during the initial half of the year. Goods enabled by AI, including semiconductors and servers, contributed to 47 percent of the overall global merchandise trade expansion. Trade in these products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also mentioned that global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to increase by at least 30 percent in 2026. The robust demand for computing hardware helped sustain trade flows even as other sectors faced disruptions from conflicts and logistical constraints.
Adjustments in global supply chains also responded to pressures across major commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Similarly, liquefied natural gas exports from the region decreased by 47 percent over the same period. Nevertheless, increased shipments from alternative suppliers resulted in a limited overall decline of about 6 percent for crude oil exports. Meanwhile, global LNG exports only fell by 1 percent. Additionally, worldwide container throughput rose by 3.9 percent through July as trade shifted through alternative ports and routes.
AI-enabled goods bolster global merchandise trade
This more optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with the subdued expectations for commercial services trade. The WTO lowered its 2026 growth forecast for services trade volume from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East had a heavier impact on transport and international travel, with international tourist arrivals decreasing by 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Overall, arrivals in the first half of the year increased by just 0.4 percent. Growth in travel expenditure also slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
In contrast, other service sectors experienced stronger growth despite the challenges faced by travel and transportation. Computer services exports grew by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services rose by 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent increase in commercial services trade volume for 2027. It also forecasts global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Uneven regional trade growth persists
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal significant disparities across the global economy. The WTO expects Asia to lead export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North America’s exports are projected to expand by 5.7 percent, with Africa at 5.6 percent. South America is expected to see a 3.4 percent increase, whereas Europe may experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest contraction, with merchandise exports predicted to decrease by 17.2 percent during the year.
Similarly, regional import growth varies sharply in the latest WTO forecast. Asia is anticipated to see imports increase by 9.5 percent, while Africa’s imports are projected to grow by 8.9 percent. North America’s imports are expected to rise by 1.4 percent, and Europe’s by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports into the Middle East are forecast to fall by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that these figures demonstrate trade resilience but also underscore the unequal exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.