MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia aims to increase its yearly vehicle output to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035 as part of its revised automotive industry strategy. During a sector development meeting on Aug. 31, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this target. The projection encompasses both vehicles intended for domestic use and those for export, with a goal to reach 80% locally produced vehicles in the new-vehicle market by 2035.
On Aug. 24, the Russian government approved the updated automotive plan, extending the industry framework through 2035. As of the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle manufacturing capacity was roughly 3.3 million units annually. Actual production during that year was near 800,000 vehicles. Capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles during 2024 and 2025, reaching 35% for trucks and 43% for buses.
The scenario set for 2035 predicts production of around 2.5 million passenger cars and approximately 170,000 light commercial vehicles. The plan also envisions manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car production is assigned to four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles would be built on one or two. The total new-vehicle market in 2035 is projected to reach about 3.2 million units, with imports comprising up to 20% of that market.
Production goals encompass all vehicle categories
A secondary, lower-production, lower-market forecast is included within the strategy. Under this scenario, vehicle production in 2035 would be about 1.69 million units, with the new-vehicle market estimated at roughly 2.2 million units that year. The target scenario for 2030 projects a market size of approximately 2.4 million units, while the lower forecast estimates around 2 million vehicles across all segments.
Significant emphasis is placed on powertrain and technological targets in the revised framework. Internal-combustion vehicles are expected to represent 67% to 83% of production in 2035, depending on the segment. Electric and hybrid passenger cars are forecasted to make up at least 25% of Russia’s new passenger-car market by then. Additionally, the strategy aims to produce around 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher in 2035. The document also addresses driver-assistance systems and digital vehicle technologies.
Manufacturing capacity and localization are key focus areas
Russia’s current manufacturing infrastructure exceeds its recent annual production levels. Passenger-car capacity was approximately 2.8 million units in 2025, with actual output near 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity reached about 300,000 units, compared to a production of roughly 80,000. Truck capacity totaled around 130,000 units, while bus capacity was close to 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories produced about 4,400 vehicles equipped with electric powertrains, up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes expanding the use of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also sets ambitious localization and technological independence goals for domestically manufactured vehicles. The plan encompasses passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technology. Its target scenario combines the 2.8 million annual production goal with the objective of an 80% domestic-market share. An action plan for implementation is mandated by the order that approved the revised strategy.