BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – An estimated increase of €53 billion in European Union transport expenses is projected for 2026 due to rising road fuel prices. On September 23, Transport & Environment released this forecast after analyzing data from the 28 weeks ending September 6. Their comparison of fuel spending with the same period in the previous year, adjusted for inflation, highlights the significant hike. Diesel alone contributed approximately €40 billion to the additional costs. The calculation encompasses expenditures on diesel and petrol related to road transportation.
According to T&E, increased fuel prices added an average of €270 million daily to EU road transportation costs. Diesel was responsible for about €203 million of this daily rise, while petrol accounted for roughly €67 million. The group attributes this surge to tighter refined-fuel supplies amid the Middle East conflict and outages at Russian refineries. These disruptions widened the gap between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. Notably, diesel and gasoil make up around 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has separately observed notable fluctuations in crude oil and refined-product markets, particularly for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group noted on September 8 that the EU currently faces no immediate oil supply shortage. They emphasized that increased EU refinery output and alternative global sources continue to satisfy demand, with commercial and emergency stocks remaining adequate. Nonetheless, the Commission pointed out that geopolitical uncertainties are still fueling considerable price volatility in global oil and petroleum markets.
Rising Diesel Costs Impact Drivers and Freight Firms
For drivers, T&E estimates that the typical EU diesel car owner spent about €142 more during the study period. By September 14, the group calculated a €30 increase on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to the pre-conflict baseline. Long-haul trucks in Germany experienced an average weekly additional fuel expense of around €236. The analysis notes that Europe’s roads are home to approximately 6.2 million trucks. Elevated diesel prices have also affected road freight operators and other commercial fuel consumers.
Diesel remains a key component of EU road transport and freight activities. T&E reported that in 2024, 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption was attributed to road transport. Data from Eurostat reveal that gas and diesel oils supplied 63.2% of energy used in road transport during that year. Motor gasoline made up 26.9%, while renewables and biofuels contributed 6.2%. Electricity accounted for 0.7%, with diesel and gasoline alone providing 90.1% of the sector’s energy consumption in 2024.
EU Fuel Price Trends Continue Under Close Observation
On September 24, the European Commission published its latest Weekly Oil Bulletin, presenting updated consumer petroleum prices across EU member states. This bulletin monitors weekly price shifts, both including and excluding taxes, with data series dating back to 2005. The update followed the conclusion of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission’s collection of national price data provides regular cross-country comparisons. Its September 8 supply assessment identified diesel and jet fuel as products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimate based on the environmental group’s analysis rather than an official EU figure. It calculates additional road fuel expenditure over the 28-week period in 2026. The report also discusses impacts on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, highlighting diesel as the primary contributor to the projected increase. T&E has called for measures to cut diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continues to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption throughout the bloc.