MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal of producing 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050, as outlined in a recently approved industry development initiative. This target is part of the scenario in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government ratified the plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term goals for production, exports, and industry growth.
The strategy presents four potential development routes for the coal industry up to 2050. Under the primary scenario, production levels are projected to reach 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes by 2036. It then escalates to 662 million tonnes by 2050. The alternative scenarios project lower 2050 outputs, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia has also set export benchmarks. The main scenario envisions coal exports hitting 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and international trade of coal.
Production and export projections
The government’s strategy emphasizes maintaining existing mining capacities while exploring additional coal resources, with an emphasis on expanding the role of coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These regions accounted for 48.3% of national output in 2024, and the plan aims to increase that share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia’s explored coal reserves are reported to exceed 273 billion tonnes.
The plan also sets specific targets for coal processing and mining techniques. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, represented 58.9% of total production. The goal is to raise this share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of production in 2024, with the long-term objective of increasing its share to between 82% and 85%. The document further includes measures related to productivity, technological advancements, safety, and environmental protection.
Coal development strategy extends until 2050
The implementation of the strategy will occur in three stages. The first phase, ending in 2030, focuses on expanding production and supporting industry development. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, emphasizes the utilization of coal, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final stage, spanning 2037 to 2050, will build on these initiatives. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution of the plan, coordinating with federal, regional authorities, and involved organizations, and will submit annual progress reports to the Ministry of Economic Development as mandated by government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised programme during a government session on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal industry plan through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak stated that the new plan projects a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross added value by 2050, with its overall multiplier effect approaching 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains a scenario in the plan, not an unconditional forecast.